{"id":409,"date":"2026-06-08T11:06:32","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T11:06:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cityrelocationnews.com\/?p=409"},"modified":"2026-06-08T11:06:32","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T11:06:32","slug":"is-elon-musks-spacex-really-worth-1-75-trillion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cityrelocationnews.com\/?p=409","title":{"rendered":"Is Elon Musk\u2019s SpaceX Really Worth $1.75 Trillion?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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You\u2019re reading The Financial Page<\/strong>, John Cassidy\u2019s weekly column on economics and politics.<\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Later this week, Elon Musk\u2019s SpaceX is expected to issue stock to investors in what is shaping up to be the biggest initial public offering ever. The company has said it will issue 555,555,555 shares at a price of $135, which would value it at about $1.75 trillion. Musk, who is already the world\u2019s richest person thanks to his stake in Tesla, will own about forty-two per cent of SpaceX after the I.P.O., and he stands to become the world\u2019s first trillionaire.<\/p>\n

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As its name indicates, SpaceX is a space company, and an impressive one at that. Since being founded, in 2002, it has fired hundreds of rockets, pioneered the development of reusable rocket components, and displaced Boeing as the biggest supplier of launches to the Pentagon and NASA<\/em>. Last year, it carried out five missions to the International Space Station, and in January of this year it participated in the first-ever medical evacuation of an astronaut. SpaceX\u2019s Starship rocket, which is currently under development, is intended to be fully reusable. Musk has said it will be used for missions to Mars, possibly including human landings by 2031.\u201cWe do not want humans to have the same fate of dinosaurs,\u201d SpaceX says in its official I.P.O. prospectus, which combines its founder\u2019s trademark grandiosity with financial details about its business.<\/p>\n

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There\u2019s plenty of room for skepticism about the prospect of humans colonizing Mars. Yet nobody can doubt SpaceX\u2019s engineering prowess or its founder\u2019s ability to create pathbreaking businesses from scratch, even as he posts incendiary tweets around the clock. Despite his right-wing politics and his efforts to downsize the federal government when he was at DOGE<\/em>, Musk has also proved adept at garnering taxpayer support for his businesses in the form of federal contracts and subsidies. According to an analysis by the Washington Post<\/em>, these outlays have over the years amounted to thirty-eight billion dollars.<\/p>\n

Since 2019, SpaceX has launched thousands of communications satellites into low orbit around the Earth, where they provide the backbone for its Starlink broadband service, which provides internet access to more than twelve million subscribers in one hundred and sixty-four countries. Primarily designed to connect people living in remote regions, Starlink has also proved to be a critical resource during the war in Ukraine, and in natural disasters from Malaysia to Texas. SpaceX\u2019s space and connectivity arms now generate a lot of money: $15.5 billion in revenues last year. Although capital investments in Starship and other projects dragged the over-all company into a hefty net loss of nearly five billion dollars, it\u2019s not difficult to see why SpaceX is potentially a very valuable business. Last week, Morningstar, a financial-research firm, estimated the fair value of the rocket launch and Starship divisions at $611 billion, a figure that would place SpaceX comfortably in the top twenty-five of all corporations globally. But it\u2019s more than a trillion dollars short of SpaceX\u2019s $1.75 trillion valuation target for the I.P.O. \u201cWe think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO,\u201d the Morningstar analysis said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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In SpaceX\u2019s telling, the huge valuation gap will be made up by its new A.I. division. In February, it acquired another of Musk\u2019s companies, xAI, the owner of X, the social-media platform formerly known as Twitter, and the developer of Grok, the A.I. chatbot that Musk has touted as a non-\u201cwoke\u201d alternative to OpenAI\u2019s ChatGPT, Anthropic\u2019s Claude, and Google\u2019s Gemini. Despite Musk\u2019s best efforts, however, Grok has yet to achieve the success of its rivals. Now operating as part of SpaceX, the xAI business brought in barely a fifth of the over-all company\u2019s revenue during the first quarter of this year, and it had an operating loss of close to $2.5 billion. These forbidding financials didn\u2019t put off Musk. Anthropic and OpenAI are both laying the groundwork for their own I.P.O.s; evidently, Musk saw a chance to go first. SpaceX is pitching itself to investors as an A.I. company, and it estimates the potential A.I. market at $26.5 trillion\u2014the equivalent of more than eighty per cent of U.S. G.D.P.<\/p>\n

In a world where A.I. mania was less advanced, you might have expected the I.P.O.\u2019s underwriters\u2014the banks hired to sell shares to investors\u2014to have queried these numbers. We don\u2019t live in that world. Theoretically, these banks, which are paid a percentage of every dollar raised, have a reputational stake in not overselling. But last week, Goldman Sachs, the lead underwriter, reportedly predicted that SpaceX\u2019s A.I. revenues would rise more than a hundredfold over the next five years. Even Musk hasn\u2019t gone that far.<\/p>\n

Not all of SpaceX\u2019s A.I. business is dependent on Grok. At a time when many A.I. companies are facing a shortage of computing capacity, it has built two massive data centers in Memphis, Tennessee. During recent weeks, the company has reached agreements with Anthropic and Google to rent out some of this capacity for payments that, combined, reportedly come to more than two billion dollars a month. But the development that has generated the most excitement among Musk\u2019s large investor fan club is the idea of SpaceX operating data centers in space. \u201cAs part of this agreement, Anthropic also expressed interest in partnering to develop multiple gigawatts of orbital AI compute capacity,\u201d SpaceX said in a statement announcing the deal with Anthropic.<\/p>\n

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The term \u201corbital-compute capacity\u201d refers to the idea of stationing data centers in orbit and using solar energy to power them. \u201cSpaceX is the only organization with the launch cadence, mass-to-orbit economics, and constellation operations experience to make orbital compute a near-term engineering program rather than a research concept,\u201d the statement went on. Perhaps. In the prospectus, where I.P.O. candidates are legally obliged to acknowledge the risk factors attending their plans and ambitions, SpaceX admitted that setting up a fleet of data centers in space is \u201can incredibly difficult challenge,\u201d which would require thousands of rocket launches each year to transport payloads weighing approximately a million metric tons in cumulative terms. Even if the orbital network could be successfully deployed, how would its components be maintained in such a hostile and remote environment? \u201cNo one else has previously operated or attempted to operate orbital AI compute, and the conditions of space on such AI infrastructure have not been tested,\u201d the prospectus noted.<\/p>\n

At this stage, the project looks more like a science experiment than a fully worked-out business plan. In Morningstar\u2019s assessment of SpaceX, it said that utilizing solar power in space could theoretically give the firm a cost advantage over terrestrial operators of data centers, but added, \u201cWe are uncertain about the scientific and economic feasibility of such a plan.\u201d Given these doubts, it placed a provisional value of $180 billion on SpaceX\u2019s A.I. division, bringing its overall estimate of the company\u2019s value to $780 billion, which is nearly a trillion dollars short of the I.P.O. target.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a huge gap, and, purely in financial terms, the new stock looks like a risky proposition. The I.P.O. values SpaceX at more than ninety times its 2025 revenues. By comparison, when Google went public in 2004, it was valued at about ten times its trailing revenues; when Palantir, the data-analytics company, went public sixteen years later, the revenue multiple was about twenty. Musk is even outdoing himself. In June, 2010, when Tesla first issued shares, the company was valued at roughly fifteen times its prior-year revenues.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Since then, Tesla\u2019s stock price has risen more than three-hundredfold, an ascent that explains Musk\u2019s godlike status among investors who bought in early. Many of these folks will surely purchase stock in SpaceX, too. Most I.P.O.s are restricted to institutional investors, such as pension funds, but Musk has reserved thirty per cent of the shares for retail investors\u2014a stipulation that some skeptics attribute to self-interest rather than any democratic urge. \u201cThe valuation is kind of crazy, and the only way to justify it is for SpaceX to become a retail cult stock,\u201d Steve Eisman, a money manager who became famous for shorting subprime mortgage securities before the crash of 2007-8, remarked on his podcast. \u201cSo, this is an I.P.O. of a sci-fi story tailor-made for a sci-fi cult\u2014to infinity and beyond, or, in this case, to Mars.\u201d<\/p>\n

In his classic book \u201cA Random Walk Down Wall Street,\u201d the economist Burton G. Malkiel noted that, traditionally, there have been two theories of stock valuation: the \u201cfirm foundation\u201d theory, which relates stock prices to economic fundamentals, like profits and interest rates; and the \u201ccastles in the air\u201d theory, in which investors concentrate on \u201cpsychic values.\u201d As Tesla\u2019s history demonstrates, Musk can create companies that eventually make hefty profits, but he\u2019s also a master castle builder. Even as competitors have eaten into Tesla\u2019s E.V. business during recent years, he has managed to keep its stock price up by insisting that it\u2019s now an A.I. robotics company. Now he\u2019s adopting a similar strategy with SpaceX. By this weekend, SpaceX is likely to be worth considerably more than Tesla, even though it generates less than a fifth of its revenues. Given all the hype around A.I., the enduring faith of the Musk fan club, and the fact that many index funds will be obliged to buy SpaceX as it enters the Nasdaq 100 index, the newly issued stock may well pop despite its stratospheric valuation. At some point, though, gravity will surely assert itself. And, if last week\u2019s sell-off in tech stocks is a harbinger, that moment may not be very far away. \u2666<\/p>\n

Read more John Early Is Ready to Go There<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The billionaire spent more than two decades creating a successful space company. Now he\u2019s pitching it as an A.I. play, John Cassidy writes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":408,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-financial-page"],"yoast_head":"\nIs Elon Musk\u2019s SpaceX Really Worth $1.75 Trillion? - City Relocation News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cityrelocationnews.com\/?p=409\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is Elon Musk\u2019s SpaceX Really Worth $1.75 Trillion? - City Relocation News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The billionaire spent more than two decades creating a successful space company. 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