{"id":61,"date":"2026-05-20T06:37:08","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T06:37:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cityrelocationnews.com\/?p=61"},"modified":"2026-05-20T06:37:08","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T06:37:08","slug":"do-we-think-too-much-about-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cityrelocationnews.com\/?p=61","title":{"rendered":"Do We Think Too Much About the Future?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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You\u2019re reading Open Questions<\/strong>, Joshua Rothman\u2019s weekly column exploring what it means to be human.<\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

If you had lived in the early decades of the sixteenth century, how would you have thought about the future? Presumably, you would have considered it in everyday terms: you would have wondered whether it would rain tomorrow, speculated about what might happen in your town over the summer, and hoped to get married someday. But, in other respects, your approach to the future might have been unusual, at least by our modern lights. If you were religious\u2014and who wasn\u2019t?\u2014then you might have taken for granted that \u201cthe End of the World was approaching,\u201d the historian Reinhart Koselleck writes, in his book \u201cFutures Past: On the Semantics of Historical Time.\u201d Perhaps you would have regarded the Reformation as urgent business: Martin Luther, Koselleck observes, \u201cfrequently referred to the fact that the Fall was to be expected in the coming year,\u201d and even suggested that God was accelerating the timetable as a favor to the chosen, with \u201calmost all of the new century . . . pressed into the space of one decade.\u201d For practical purposes\u2014planting, harvesting\u2014there was a future worth thinking about. But, in the larger sense, history was on the verge of concluding.<\/p>\n

Read more The Prehistory of A.I. Slop<\/a><\/p>\n

Fast-forward nearly three hundred years, Koselleck writes, and listen to the Jacobin leader Maximilien Robespierre speaking in the midst of the French Revolution, in 1793. \u201cThe time has come to call upon each to realize his own destiny,\u201d Robespierre said. \u201cThe progress of human Reason laid the basis for this great Revolution, and you shall now assume the particular duty of hastening its pace.\u201d Robespierre didn\u2019t believe that history was about to end; he thought it was just beginning. He was hardly alone. Sometime between 1517, when Luther published his Ninety-five Theses, and Robespierre\u2019s time, the idea of the future coalesced.<\/p>\n

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A lot had to change in the Western world in order for the idea of the future to make sense. In Koselleck\u2019s account, the church, which told a coherent story about the beginning, middle, and end of time, had to loosen its narrative grip. Europe\u2019s religious wars needed to pause long enough for political progress to become thinkable. Science and technology had to get off the ground. Skeptical philosophers had to raise impertinent questions about what it was actually possible to know. Governments played a role by actively repressing apocalyptic fervor; oddly, astrology helped, by proposing an \u201cendless array of undatable, variable oracles\u201d as a low-key alternative to millenarian prophecy. Meanwhile, Koselleck explains, ideas about rationality helped people see the future as \u201ca domain of finite possibilities, arranged according to their greater or lesser probability.\u201d<\/p>\n

All this takes us to, say, the eighteenth century. At that point, we might say the ingredients of the future expanded to include the invention of accurate clocks and professional accounting; the advancement of journalism and science fiction; the perfection of loans, equities, insurance, and other market-based approaches to looking ahead; and more. The upshot, today, is that the future is deeply woven into the practical fabric of our lives. It\u2019s almost as though we live there. And all sorts of people\u2014technologists, writers, artists, politicians, investors, and businesspeople\u2014now work to shape our notions about what\u2019s to come.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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How\u2019s that going? Two facts stand out. First, since no one actually knows the future, guessing, speculating, or simply making things up remains the state of the art for almost everyone involved in describing it. (Prediction markets, the biggest recent innovation in forecasting, are based on the recognition that experts are often wrong.) And second, our views of the future tend to be dark, and seem to be getting darker. Young people, in particular, increasingly report that they\u2019ve \u201clost the future\u201d as something to look forward to; they feel trapped in a world careening out of control. A survey conducted by Pew Research found that only fourteen per cent of Americans would transport themselves to the future, if given the choice; nearly half say that they\u2019d prefer to live in the past. Looking ahead, we see mostly malevolent inevitabilities\u2014climate change, oligarchy, autocracy, A.I. overlords, and the like. The open future has closed up on us; we\u2019re back in the end times, where we started.<\/p>\n

Maybe the whole enterprise was doomed from the start: this is the implication of \u201cProphecy: Prediction, Power, and the Fight for the Future, from Ancient Oracles to AI,\u201d by Carissa V\u00e9liz, a philosopher at the University of Oxford. Putting visions of the future at the center of society seemed reasonable, V\u00e9liz argues, only because so many took a \u201cnaive view of prediction,\u201d imagining \u201cpredictions as quests for truth.\u201d In fact, \u201cpredictions are power moves much more than they are attempts at acquiring knowledge\u201d; often, they are actually \u201ccommands disguised as descriptions,\u201d made by those who know that \u201cthe most effective way to predict the future is to determine it.\u201d<\/p>\n

V\u00e9liz indicts the process of prediction on two levels. To begin with, making good predictions is simply more difficult than we\u2019d like. Would-be predictors face \u201cdata troubles\u201d (numbers can be incomplete, deceptive, or outright fraudulent); \u201csocial troubles\u201d (people are weird); \u201cscientific troubles\u201d (\u201cWe cannot predict through any rational or scientific methods the future of our scientific knowledge\u201d); \u201ccoincidental troubles\u201d (\u201cflukes that forever alter the path ahead\u201d); and \u201cironical troubles\u201d (by \u201cselling risk management,\u201d predictors can actually increase systemic risk). These are all reasons to take any given prediction less seriously.<\/p>\n

Read more What the Gerrymandering Wars Mean for the Midterms\u2014and 2028<\/a><\/p>\n

In addition, however, many acts of prediction aren\u2019t what they seem to be. A prediction is often presented as a sort of would-be fact\u2014a statement of what the predictor believes will, to some degree of probability, be true. But predictions are often twistier than that. At a minimum, V\u00e9liz suggests, most are \u201cwishful\u201d (\u201cYou want<\/em> the horse you bet on to win\u201d). Others contain hidden structures of motivation. If the forecast has a ten-per-cent chance of rain, you\u2019re unlikely to take an umbrella, and yet, if it does rain, you may angrily conclude that the true chance was higher than ten per cent; as a result, V\u00e9liz writes, many weather apps deliberately overstate the probability of rain. Similarly, she notes, \u201cwhen storms approach, responsible authorities tend to overreact, because the bad consequences of overreacting are less bad than those of underreacting.\u201d These sorts of factors affect predictions large and small: you might sense them at work when your mechanic proposes replacing a part that may soon fail, or when an A.I. executive warns about the possibility of human extinction.<\/p>\n

Predictions are sometimes simply impossible to make, Vel\u00edz writes, which doesn\u2019t stop people from trying to make them. They can be harmful\u2014perhaps a prediction will set your bail too high, or underestimate your suitability for a loan, or just give people the wrong impression\u2014and yet the making of predictions is basically unsupervised: anyone can predict anything about anyone at any time. Right now, V\u00e9liz writes, \u201cno one is informing you of the prophecies that shape your fate.\u201d So her advice, over all, is to be wary of predictions and prophecies. Approach them with due skepticism; try to avoid making them yourself (\u201cprepare, don\u2019t predict\u201d); and, if subjected to them, begin evasive maneuvers. \u201cSurprise yourself,\u201d she suggests. \u201cLive in the present.\u201d Thinking about what\u2019s coming is inevitable, but \u201cif you must wander into the territory of the future, don\u2019t venture further than necessary. It\u2019s safer to predict what will happen in an hour than in a hundred years.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Personally, I feel that thinking about the future is interesting and useful. I also believe that it\u2019s necessary\u2014and that \u201cwishful\u201d prediction isn\u2019t so bad. (We take the work of prediction more seriously when we have skin in the game.) Still, \u201cProphecy\u201d persuasively describes how those in power seek to shape the world by predicting it.<\/p>\n

It also articulates a fundamental problem with the future. The difficulty isn\u2019t so much with what\u2019s unknown as with what\u2019s known. Whatever the future turns out to be, it will be contiguous with the present\u2014an extension of the world in which we live now. So what do we know about the state of our world? Is it a good place or a bad one? Is it getting better or worse? About a decade ago, I wrote a piece investigating those questions. The best answer I found came from the late global-health statistician Hans Rosling, who maintained that the data showed that the world as a whole was \u201cbad and better.\u201d There was a lot wrong with it, and new things were going wrong all the time, but many of the old things that had been going wrong were also getting fixed. \u201cThink of the world as a premature baby in an incubator,\u201d he suggested, her situation critical but improving.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s required of us, if we\u2019re charged with that infant\u2019s care? We mustn\u2019t congratulate ourselves on what\u2019s going right\u2014we have to focus on what\u2019s going wrong. We can\u2019t be Pollyannas. We have to be vigilant and alarmed. And so we are: we are freaked out, as responsible stewards of an ailing world ought to be. This, however, has consequences for the kinds of futures we imagine. Predictions aren\u2019t only tools for the powerful; they can help us imagine good possibilities. And yet those still-unknown possibilities, which could be a source of hope, are as nothing when judged against the emergency that\u2019s already unfolding in front of us. It\u2019s in this sense that the idea of the future\u2014the one invented between 1517 and 1793\u2014is a trap. Any realistic future, extrapolated from the present, will be a scary one, reflecting back to us our own warranted, present-tense vigilance. To imagine a good future, we need to be hopeful, utopian, unreasonable. We have to struggle against the very attitudes we must cultivate in order to bring it about.\u00a0\u2666<\/p>\n

Read more The Generation That Will Always Be Too Young to Smoke<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Joshua Rothman writes about the future and considers whether the concept is a flawed idea.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":60,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-61","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-open-questions"],"yoast_head":"\nDo We Think Too Much About the Future? - City Relocation News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cityrelocationnews.com\/?p=61\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Do We Think Too Much About the Future? - City Relocation News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Joshua Rothman writes about the future and considers whether the concept is a flawed idea.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cityrelocationnews.com\/?p=61\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"City Relocation News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-20T06:37:08+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/cityrelocationnews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/7d7bc6206b8ca955219b037e61334f0c.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1280\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cityrelocationnews.com\\\/?p=61#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cityrelocationnews.com\\\/?p=61\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cityrelocationnews.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/3e7ce0c0c60d21e12a5ac61fb2b786d4\"},\"headline\":\"Do We Think Too Much About the Future?\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-05-20T06:37:08+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cityrelocationnews.com\\\/?p=61\"},\"wordCount\":1722,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cityrelocationnews.com\\\/?p=61#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cityrelocationnews.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/7d7bc6206b8ca955219b037e61334f0c.webp\",\"articleSection\":[\"Open Questions\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/cityrelocationnews.com\\\/?p=61#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cityrelocationnews.com\\\/?p=61\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cityrelocationnews.com\\\/?p=61\",\"name\":\"Do We Think Too Much About the Future? 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