{"id":936,"date":"2026-07-15T10:37:54","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T10:37:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cityrelocationnews.com\/?p=936"},"modified":"2026-07-15T10:37:54","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T10:37:54","slug":"how-ukraine-brought-the-war-to-russia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cityrelocationnews.com\/?p=936","title":{"rendered":"How Ukraine Brought the War to Russia"},"content":{"rendered":"
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In recent weeks, Donald Trump\u2014whose attitude toward Ukraine and its President, Volodymyr Zelensky, has been notoriously fickle, when not outright hostile\u2014has appeared to warm to Ukraine\u2019s chances in the war with Russia. On the sidelines of the NATO<\/em> summit in Ankara, he met with Zelensky and later spoke of him in flattering terms, declaring \u201cWe\u2019ve actually developed a good relationship. It\u2019s hard to believe.\u201d Trump has a history of favoring those he perceives as winners, and his change in attitude regarding Ukraine seems driven by the country\u2019s newfound ability to strike targets deep inside Russia\u2014\u201can escalation that can help lead to an end,\u201d Trump said. In Ankara, Zelensky, the inveterate entertainer, riffed on a question from Trump, who asked if Zelensky would consider travelling to Moscow for direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. That would be dangerous, Zelensky said. \u201cThere are a lot of Ukrainian drones there.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more When A.I. Is a Member of the Family<\/a><\/p>\n

Those drones have marked a new phase in the war, defined by the centrality of long-range strikes. Russia has been doing this since the start of the war, terrorizing Ukrainian cities with aerial assaults that have killed thousands of civilians and crippled much of the country\u2019s energy grid for months on end. In June, it launched multiple waves of drones and missiles targeting residential blocks in Kyiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, and other Ukrainian cities. On July 1st, in Russia\u2019s deadliest attack to date this year on Kyiv, more than thirty people were killed. Five days later, another attack on Kyiv and the surrounding region left at least twenty-eight people dead.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s new is Ukraine\u2019s own emerging capabilities. In recent weeks, Ukraine has said that it has hit Russian military sites and energy infrastructure at so-called strategic depth\u2014as much as a thousand miles or more from its border with Russia\u2014including the oil terminal at the main port in St. Petersburg; a satellite-communications center near Moscow; a plant in Volgograd that manufactures specialized components for Russia\u2019s missile program; and major oil refineries in Moscow and Omsk. In Crimea, where Ukrainian strikes on supply routes and infrastructure have become commonplace, gasoline is especially scarce, and power outages are routine. Last month, local authorities cancelled all children\u2019s summer camps\u2014a long-held tradition and point of pride across the Russian state\u2014for the rest of the season.<\/p>\n

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In a sense, the war now has two fronts. The first remains in the Donbas, in eastern Ukraine, where Russian forces have continued their advance. They are currently poised to capture the city of Kostiantynivka, one of the few remaining Ukrainian strongholds in the Donbas. But, in 2026, Russia\u2019s offensive pace has dramatically slowed. A recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies states that Russia has suffered more than thirty thousand casualties per month this year, while advancing, in certain areas, less than a hundred metres per day. \u201cThese are among the slowest rates of advance in any war over the last century,\u201d the report notes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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The second front is in the skies over both countries. Repeatedly during the war, Western backers have declined to provide Ukraine with long-range cruise missiles. Initially, the Biden Administration worried that Ukrainian strikes on Russia would disrupt energy markets and lead Putin to escalate the conflict. Germany, in another example, declined to transfer any of its Taurus missiles to Kyiv, cautious of being seen as a direct participant in the war. During the past year, multiple European countries have funded the creation of alternatives, both Western-made and homegrown systems built in Ukraine. Germany set aside three hundred million euros to develop Ukraine\u2019s deep-strike capabilities; the Netherlands pledged five hundred million euros for Ukraine\u2019s drones and other weapons. Last month, the European Commission gave Ukraine nearly four billion euros to pursue advanced drone technology.<\/p>\n

The U.S., in the second Trump Administration, has essentially discontinued direct military assistance to Ukraine. Yet it has continued to provide the intelligence that Ukraine needs to reach high-value targets inside Russia. \u201cFor strikes at a long distance, you have to calculate flight paths, altitude, how to bypass air defense along the way,\u201d Mykola Bielieskov, a defense analyst in Kyiv, said. \u201cAnd for this we still very much need the U.S.\u201d The result is a kind of felicitous trinity of European money, American intelligence, and Ukrainian production.<\/p>\n

Russia and Ukraine shoot down the overwhelming majority of drones that enter their airspace, which makes the success of any given drone attack a matter of numbers. The two most common Ukrainian deep-strike drones\u2014the Liutyi, developed by the country\u2019s state-owned arms producer, and the FP-1, which is produced by Fire Point, Ukraine\u2019s largest private drone company\u2014have been around for years. They have received recent upgrades in navigation and other technical systems, but the most decisive development has been in their increased scales of production. \u201cIn all of 2024, we produced just a little bit more than two thousand of them,\u201d Iryna Terekh, Fire Point\u2019s C.E.O., said of her company\u2019s FP-1 drones. \u201cNow that\u2019s what we make in ten days.\u201d<\/p>\n

At the same time, more advanced weaponry has entered Ukraine\u2019s arsenal. The FP-5, known as the Flamingo, a Ukrainian-made cruise missile, developed by Fire Point, has a range of nearly two thousand miles and carries a warhead of two and a half thousand pounds. (A Ukrainian long-range drone, like a Liutyi or FP-1, typically carries a warhead of closer to a hundred pounds.) The missile\u2019s nickname came from the pink color of its test version. \u201cWe used to have a joke,\u201d Terekh told me. \u201cWhat\u2019s the worst thing that could happen if a woman becomes C.E.O. of a defense company? Nothing\u2014but the missiles will start to be colored pink.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Flamingo was developed cheaply and quickly, powered by discarded Soviet-era jet engines and lacking the sophisticated guidance systems found on Western cruise missiles, all of which makes it easier for Russian air defenses to intercept. Jack Watling, a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense think tank, who has made dozens of research trips to Ukraine, told me that for a Flamingo to get \u201con target\u201d it needs to be part of an extensive strike package, including dozens or even hundreds of drones. \u201cIf a single Flamingo was used by itself, it would have a very low success rate,\u201d he said. But, as part of a suite of long-range drones and missiles, it comes to serve as the \u201cvicious uppercut that delivers the killing blow.\u201d Flamingos, for example, were used in the strike on the missile-components plant in Volgograd.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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As a result, Russia is now facing the same set of dilemmas that it had long forced on Ukraine. \u201cThey have a lot to defend and not enough air defense to protect it all,\u201d Bielieskov told me. The front line alone is roughly eight hundred miles long, to say nothing of the potential targets dotted across Russia\u2019s enormous landmass. A defense source in Moscow told me, \u201cOur great historic advantage, our strategic depth\u201d\u2014the vast expanses of space that slow down or trap adversaries, and across which Russia can spread energy infrastructure and weapons plants\u2014\u201chas now become a huge disadvantage.\u201d<\/p>\n

Tactics have shifted along with technology. Until recently, most of Ukraine\u2019s drone fleet was directed toward Russian forces on the front lines. In January, Mykhailo Fedorov, who had recently been named Ukraine\u2019s defense minister, outlined one of his chief strategic goals. In the previous month, Ukraine claimed it had managed to kill thirty-five thousand Russian soldiers, with many of those casualties inflicted by drones inside the so-called kill zone, an amorphous twenty-mile territory in which open maneuver for either side was all but impossible. Going forward, Fedorov said, in order to overwhelm Russia\u2019s recruitment pipeline, the country\u2019s armed forces would aim to take out fifty thousand per month. \u201cThey treat people as a resource,\u201d Fedorov said. \u201cAnd problems with that resource are already obvious.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read more An Unbeliever\u2019s View of the Jonestown Massacre<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraine also honed its strategy for striking targets beyond the kill zone. Ukrainian drone units, which had been spread among different parts of the armed forces, often experimenting with their own tools and targets, were brought into a more unified command structure. Among its first targets were Russian air-defense systems, which, since March of 2025, have made up more than half of all targets destroyed by Ukrainian drones. Soon, such drones were striking at will on Russian munitions depots, supply convoys, and transport routes. \u201cThe point is to deny mobility to Russian forces,\u201d Michael Kofman, an analyst of the war at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said. \u201cAttack drones are loitering up and down the main roads up to one hundred miles from the front, trying to hit every truck that drives down them.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ukraine next targeted Russia\u2019s oil and energy infrastructure. According to an analysis by the Financial Times<\/em>, so far in 2026, Ukraine has hit Russian refineries nearly two hundred times\u2014an elevenfold increase from the same time frame in the previous year. The wider aim is to create a fuel crisis inside Russia, so that ordinary Russians feel the effects of the war. The F.T.<\/em> found that fifty million Russians, more than a third of the population, have been affected by gasoline shortages.<\/p>\n

Similarly, Ukraine now has \u201call the pieces of the puzzle,\u201d as Kofman put it, to seriously impede logistics and resupply for both military forces and the civilian population in Crimea. Forcing a full Russian evacuation of the peninsula remains a distant prospect, but complicating the Kremlin\u2019s hold over Crimea, he explained, could be a point of leverage in achieving Ukraine\u2019s larger strategic objective: a ceasefire by the fall.<\/p>\n

Last winter in Ukraine was the hardest yet in the war. Russian strikes on energy infrastructure left Kyiv and other major cities with hours of blackouts each day, and whole neighborhoods without heat during freezing temperatures. Ukraine still lacks reliable air defense at scale. Its anti-drone interceptors can shoot down Shahed-style drones, but they aren\u2019t fast enough to hit ballistic missiles or jet-powered drones, which Russia is increasingly sending as part of its swarms. Kofman told me, \u201cDespite all of Ukraine\u2019s success with its strike campaign and Russia\u2019s own floundering offensive in the Donbas, when it comes to missile defense, Ukraine is in pretty bad shape heading into winter.\u201d<\/p>\n

To defend itself from long-range Russian missiles, Ukraine needs Western air defenses, such as the Patriot\u2014a surface-to-air missile-defense system\u2014which are expensive, take time to produce, and are already in exceedingly short supply, especially since the start of the Iran war. In the July 6th attack on Kyiv, all twenty-nine ballistic missiles that Russia launched made it through Ukrainian air defenses and hit their targets\u2014a sign that Ukraine may be effectively running out of Patriot interceptors.<\/p>\n

The most concrete agreement that Trump and Zelensky reached in Ankara was that the U.S. will grant Ukraine the necessary licenses to manufacture Patriot interceptors domestically. \u201cI think they can produce them pretty quickly,\u201d Trump said, though that seems unlikely. In 2024, Germany agreed to produce a version of the Patriot interceptor that is less advanced than the current iteration; in that case, the first interceptors are expected to be ready in 2027. That is time Ukraine doesn\u2019t have. \u201cIf Ukraine finds itself in late fall or winter without a deal to halt strikes, it\u2019s looking at a very difficult situation in its cities,\u201d Kofman said. (There\u2019s also some uncertainty about the future of the strike campaign itself: this week, as part of a cabinet reshuffle, Zelensky was reportedly considering replacing Fedorov, the defense minister, who is widely seen as a spirited, reform-minded leader.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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In Russia, there are some signs of a shift in mood. In late June, German Gref, the head of Sberbank and a longtime Putin associate, said that he did not think \u201cthere is a person in the country\u201d with any concern more urgent than \u201cthe swiftest possible end to the hostilities.\u201d Days later, the acting governor of the Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine and has come under regular fire, said that residents most wanted \u201cthe special military operation to end.\u201d<\/p>\n

But the only opinion that really matters is that of Putin. Earlier this month, wearing military fatigues, he visited a command post, in an undisclosed location, where he received a detailed briefing about the state of the war. \u201cI would like to note the positive momentum in the actions of our troops,\u201d Putin said afterward, noting \u201cthe increasing pace of advance by units and formations of the Russian armed forces along the entire front line.\u201d He also spoke of Ukraine\u2019s \u201cimaginary achievements\u201d and \u201csuccesses that we know don\u2019t actually exist.\u201d The capture of Kostiantynivka, he said, is \u201conly the first, but a highly significant\u201d step in Russia seizing the rest of the Donbas\u2014an operation that, using Russia\u2019s current pace as a guide, would take years.<\/p>\n

The Moscow defense source compared the coming chapter to a \u201cbloody repeat\u201d of the so-called War of the Cities in the Iran-Iraq War in the nineteen-eighties, in which both sides, stalled on the front, launched indiscriminate air and missile strikes on each other. In a way, more than four years into the war, that\u2019s hardly a new prospect for Ukraine. \u201cThey\u2019re used to this,\u201d the source said. \u201cWe\u2019re the ones facing this for the first time.\u201d\u00a0\u2666<\/p>\n

Read more England\u2019s Dynamic, Divergent, Deadly Duo<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Long-range drone and missile strikes on Russian soil have shifted the balance of the conflict\u2014will they be enough to end it? Joshua Yaffa writes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":935,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-lede"],"yoast_head":"\nHow Ukraine Brought the War to Russia - City Relocation News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cityrelocationnews.com\/?p=936\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How Ukraine Brought the War to Russia - City Relocation News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Long-range drone and missile strikes on Russian soil have shifted the balance of the conflict\u2014will they be enough to end it? 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